| Rates | |
| USD / ZAR: | 13,618 |
| EUR / ZAR: | 14,7889 |
| GBP / ZAR: | 17,6496 |
| ZAR / JPY: | 8,3079 |
| EUR / USD: | 1,0892 |
| GBP / USD: | 1,2947 |
| USD / JPY: | 113,32 |
| Ø | ZAR range bound ahead rumours of Moody’s downgrade | |||||||
| Ø | Commodity prices catalyst to ZAR weakness | |||||||
| Ø | Min Gigaba reaffirms Gov commitment to present policy | |||||||
| ZAR remains range bound, with little flows as it traded in a narrow range yesterday around the 13.65 level. Market is now expecting Moody’s will downgrade SA by one notch, even as the nuclear deal has been put on hold (hmmm) and Fin Min Gigaba has reaffirmed the Governments’ commitment to existing policy. Market and Investors are giving the Min Gigaba some space to see if he will follow through with what he has said. He too, comes with some baggage and that’s the scepticism that the market has painted him with, hence the wait to see his way forward. The market seems to think that this downgrade is highly unlikely to be a game changer and affect the market, if one goes by the purchase of bonds since previous downgrade (R30bn). ZAR weakness has been due to the weaker commodity prices and the stronger dollar. Talking to traders they seem to think it’s a bit toppish and time to take profit and look again. Trading range 13.50-14.00 |
| Economic Data: | 10th May | |||
| Ø | US MBA Mortgage Appli | |||
| Ø | US Money Supply M2 y/y | |||
USD/ZAR Hourly Candle
This chart has reached it ST targets and I would now look at selling a $ rally to over the R13.70 – R13.84 level in the coming days.
” Losers average down losers”– PTJ
USD/ZAR Daily Close
The R12.75 level is coming and we are waiting to see what the market structure looks like once it gets there and if we are keen to buy $’s.
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
Leave a Comment