Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 15th of November

1. ZAR worst performed in EM basket
2. ZAR lost some 8.8% since US election
3. ZAR looking for fundamentals for some help
3. Market is state of flux

ZAR has lost some 8,8% since Trump election. The ZAR ranks 23rd out of a basket of 24 currencies, as one of the worst EM performers. ZAR together with the Mexican Peso seem to be the conductor for emerging market troubles. Once the hype around Trump election has died, we can refocus on fundamentals and the exaggerated move of the ZAR will possibly come back to a realistic level. In amongst all the hype we still have the US possible rate hike which too will keep the dollar strong. ZAR seems to have reached a top at 14.45 and traced some of its losses, this could get better as the Trump election hysteria dies down. Min of Fin still very aware of the possible downgrade as he talks at seminar in Sandton. Talking to traders very little has changed. Trading range 14.10-14.45

Economic Data: 15th Nov
1. US Empire Manufacturing
2. US Retail Sales Advance m/m

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

The markets ST formation could easily trade lower but I would not pick tops.

I would rather let this chart play out over the next few days before making a call on taking a position.

“Intellectual capital will always TRUMP financial capital.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This has been a wicked rally of epic proportion off the back of what we already knew on Wednesday.

My best advise would be to stay out as this is just too volatile and still range bound in the greater scheme of things.

“As in trading and life, very few things are ever as they seem” – Anonymous