Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 1st of December

1. ZAR tries in vain to remain below the 14.00 level
2. SA data together with US data puts ZAR under pressure
3. Year end is near and market running out of steam
4. S&P release due Friday

ZAR tried in vain to hold on to its gains as the dust settled around the JZ saga to step down as ZAR traded below the 14.00 level. Then the market shifted to fundamentals as the ZAR found no favour in SA Trade and budget data showing disappointing figures together with the positive US ADP employment data together and Personal Income, ZAR weakened above the 14.00 level. Fed speakers intimated that a hike in interest rates is imminent. The market I waiting with tender hooks for Fridays S&P announcement, which is a risk factor as its unknown what their thoughts are. Talking to traders they remaining small long of dollars and intimated to remain that way for the festive season. Looks like ZAR will stabilise as the year comes to an end, but this is subject to any unwelcome political developments. Trading range 13.90-14.30.

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

Gents although there was a good run to have been caught from R13.75 – R14.10, I am still very much unsure of this whole formation.

I would advise staying out and letting this chart develop further before taking a position.

“In Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

We are still waiting to buy the USD, but with current political uncertainty and the S&P rating decision & NFP on Friday, I would now advise staying out.

  “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms. – PTJ