Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 22nd of November

1. ZAR regained some losses
2. Equity markets record levels
3. ZAR Supported by fundamentals

ZAR has regained most of its losses overnight as markets have for no priced enough of the hype into Trumps election and the possibility of a rate increase. Seems it would be prudent after the Dollars winning streak and equity markets reaching record levels, is time to take or consider some profit taking. Not much happening in SA other than the underlying fundamentals remain somewhat supportive of the ZAR and looks likely to break the 14.00 level. One must not be to gung-ho and stay very short of dollars, as we have seen in the past, with so much uncertainty in SA politics, things could and will reverse in minutes. Talking to traders they are looking to get cheap dollars as the ZAR strengthens. Trading range13.85- 14.35.

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

This chart is in decent shape but at this stage we will have to wait before taking a position.

We will look to sell the USD from R14.87 – R14.97 with a stop over R15.00, but we will only put this trade on if the market has not traded R14.10 first.

We will also look to buy the USD from R14.20 – R14.05 with a stop under R14.00.

“In Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

We are waiting to buy the USD in size, but will have to wait for a decent pullback.

At this stage we do not have levels as we will need this chart to play out overtime before making a firm call.

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms. – PTJ