Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 25th of November

1. ZAR remains resilient
2. Moody’s report release today
3. US holiday keeping market thin and quiet

While it’s Thanks Giving Day in the US, market will take a breather as ZAR remained impressive gaining nearly 2% on a surging dollar. ZAR surged to the top of best EM currency, but has some issues to contend with today, regarding the rating agency Moody’s report which is out today and what can we expect. Market very undecided as to whether we will be downgraded or not. SARB kept interest rates unchanged, offering investors very little for the way forward on what to do. ZAR has over past few days looked to break level of 14.00, but was in vin as it saw lots of dollar demand. Expect a quiet day in a very thin market. Talking to traders they still operating of a small long dollar position. Trading range 14.00-14.35.

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

This chart remains in decent shape.

We are buying the USD from R14.20 – R14.00 with a stop under R13.95.

“In Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

We are waiting to buy the USD in size, but will have to wait for a decent pullback.

At this stage we do not have levels as we will need this chart to play out overtime before making a firm call.

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms. – PTJ