Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 28th of November

1. Rating agencies release reports
2. Market reacts positively buy the ANC /NEC saga will have impact
3. S&P release their report on Friday
4. Importers should take advantage

ZAR after rating agencies announced their reports saw this as a positive and reacted accordingly as ZAR strengthened. There is nothing very optimistic about the Houdini act that SA escaped having its rating downgraded to junk status. The ZAR may have interpreted it as it’s another reason for JZ not to remove the Min of Fin from his post, giving some sort of sanity to market. The appreciation of the ZAR must not be construed as all is well in SA and prudence must prevail. Seems that all fundamentals for the ZAR are sitting on backbench as politics takes its fore, with the NEC /ANC scenario. S&P has its release on Friday but by all accounts, it too will remain unchanged. Talking to traders they are still looking at small long positions, with a stop loss at the 13.85 level. It surely must be time that importers take advantage of the good rate and buy cover for some of their commitments. Trading range 13.87-14.17.

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

Gents after Friday’s non events from Moody’s & Fitch, the ZAR has also strengthened.

We also now have the ANC NEC is considering whether or not to recall the president and its due to this that I would have to say that I would now advise staying out or only having a small long.

“In Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

We are still waiting to buy the USD, but at this stage we now have the ANC NEC which is considering whether or not to recall the president and its due to this that I would have to say that I would now advise staying out.

  “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms. – PTJ