Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 30th of November

1. ZAR loses ground initially on save JZ
2. USD falls of its high
3. Is this a possibility of cabinet shuffle?
4. Importer demand

ZAR reacted to the ANC/NEC decision to keep JZ on as president, to the disappointment to investors as the ZAR lost ground and touched a high of 14.19.It is very clear now with Zuma in place we continue to lose more political capital. The Zar was protected against it moving much higher as the USD retreated of its highs. It now must become progressively more difficult to favour further gains in the ZAR. The possibility of a cabinet reshuffle surely must be a thought on the Presidents minds whether correct or incorrect at present times, it will have a huge effect on the economy of SA if effected, so what is his way forward after the NEC meeting. Combined with political scenario the market saw constant demand of dollars at the lower levels. Talking to traders they are still staying small long of dollars until they satisfied the political dust settles. Trading range13.80-14.20.

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

uncertainty and with the S&P rating decision on Friday I would now advise remaining square.

“In Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.”

– Paul Tudor Jones

USD/ZAR Daily Close

We are still waiting to buy the USD, but with current political uncertainty and the S&P rating decision on Friday, I would now advise staying out.

  “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms. – PTJ