Gapex Morning Gut Feel Report 2 August

• ZAR stalled by importer demand
• Local elections could play a part in direction
• Soggy commodity prices as emerging markets battle
• Wait and See for tomorrow

ZAR traded a lot stronger during the day, but persistent importer demand saw it back near the 14.00 level. I tend to think that this will be the trend. ZAR still looking to strengthen but will find it tough to go to strong. Commodity prices had the most influence on emerging markets, which all put in a poor performance, which will spill over into ZAR market. The market is pricing out expectations of huge upheavals in the elections. The ZAR seems to be losing some impetus to strengthen, giving rise to importer demand. Weaker than expected vehicle sales, worst in the last 7 years has also helped market to stall and look for more positive data. A peaceful election process and acceptance of the results, will be well received locally and abroad. ZAR market squaring ahead of tomorrow’s election. Let’s wait and see what holds for us.

USD/ZAR Hourly CandleThis chart remains at levels last seen pre “Nene Gate” and this all before the local municipal election.The street seems to be long USD in size while the current price action seems to be a corrective relief rally that could trade up to the R14.06 level. However, I can see further downside in the chart over the next few days unless it starts to trade back over R14.09 and then R14.18. I would not trade unless to add to a longer term long position, or unless we have conformation that this chart has turned.   “The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside.” – George Soros

USD/ZAR Daily Close The chart has finally taken out its support at R14.20 and could now come to test the LT support at R13.40 – R13.20.I would continue to buy this chart into weakness for my longer term view as we feel that overall this chart remains bullish until we see a daily close under R13.00.   For those that are square these are great levels to start building a USD long position.  “Play the market only when all factors are in your favour. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons. – Jessie Livermore“