Gapex Gut Feel Report 16th March 2017

Rates
USD / ZAR:	12,8012
EUR / ZAR:	13,7372
GBP / ZAR:	15,731
ZAR / JPY:	8,8354
EUR / USD:	1,0728
GBP / USD:	1,2278
USD / JPY:	113,28

Ø	SA: Social Development Minister under massive pressure
Ø	SA: Dlamini-Zuma arrives back in SA, cabinet reshuffle perhaps?
Ø	FOMC hikes, but statement not quite as hawkish as expected
Ø	Commodity prices improve

USD-ZAR breaks through key support, exposes downside. The Fed hiked rates by 25bp but markets were anticipating a higher rise in rates. Fed Chair Yellen’s less hawkish remarks resulted in the USD being sold off. Commodity prices improved and EM currencies made strong gains against the USD. ZAR enjoyed a strong reaction to the FOMC decision/statement as best performing currency with the ZAR having appreciated the most through the past trading session gaining some 2.4%. Underlying fundamentals remain ZAR supportive. Social Development Minister is under huge pressure due to her conduct in the constituional court. While speculation regarding a cabinet reshuffle now that JZ is back in the country has started. Range for the day: 12.70/13.0000

Economic Data:	16th March
Ø	SA: BER Business Confidence
Ø	SA: Retail Sales Constant y/y

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

Well, all bullish bets are off and now this chart looks set to test the R12.66 level.

” All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.” – Jesse Livermore

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This chart is not bulish and could now easily trade sub R12.50 in the coming days.

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – PTJ