Gapex Gut Feel Report 3rd February

ZAR went on a great march yesterday and strengthened despite an uptick in the dollar. Saying that, it is certainly range bound at the moment seeing two-way business. Even as the political climate here in SA is facing some torrid times ahead, the ZAR remains quite resilient. We must not become too complacent as there will be a curve ball thrown along the way. The rhetoric about the National Treasury in the firing line, is if the Min of Fin and others are removed in his cabinet reshuffle, we will face an immediate downgrade to junk status. Today there is a plethora of data to be released and markets are cautious, while sitting on the side-line. I still believe that importers should be looking at % covering some of their commitments while there are great rates. Talking to traders the status quo remains the same. Trading range 13.30-13.80

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

I would advise being long USD over the next few weeks until March as there is potentially plenty political risk on the cards again.

The formation also lends itself into buying the dips.

   ” The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. 

They will die poor.”.

 – Jesse Livermore

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This chart is now a buy with a stop on a daily close under R13.00.

This chart should have upside targets of around R14.15 as a minimum.

  “There is no training, classroom or otherwise that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.”

 – PTJ